000 AXNT20 KNHC 080540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N18W 1N28W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 1S46W. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 11W-17W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US INTO THE GULF N OF 21N WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 24N89W. A SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N GUATEMALA MOVING SE. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST S OF THE MAINLAND AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN 80W-87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 25N89W TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W GIVING THAT AREA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 81W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA ALONG 16N74W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THAT AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE/ STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 70W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 74W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N77W OVER THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N78W. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO JUST S OF THE MAINLAND AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER CUBA TO 30N W OF 78W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N61W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 20W-50W AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 35N31W AND A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W TO 30N20W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A PAIR OF 1016 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 18N39W AND 20N21W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 12W. $$ WALLACE