000 AXNT20 KNHC 070516 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 2N29W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W TO 2N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 27W-37W AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 21W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 41W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE N GULF N OF 24N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER SW GEORGIA TO 26N87W. AT THE SURFACE IS AN ILL-DEFINED STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N93W. THE 1012 MB LOW THAT WAS ANALYZED NEAR 21N85W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE W ATLC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY E OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER CUBA E OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE E GULF CLEARING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA LATE MON INTO TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM S NICARAGUA TO E HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER W CUBA MOVING N INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 69W OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 74W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO 29N78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO 30N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N62W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N61W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 50W TO OVER W AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS SW ALONG 24N22W TO 19N34W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 18N46W. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS N OF THE REGION AS IS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS. $$ WALLACE