000 AXNT20 KNHC 051803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N18W 1N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N/24N. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THIS FRONT IS FOR IT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL MEXICO GULF COAST. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE FRONT IS TO BE DISSIPATING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST TO THE CENTRAL MEXICO GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 30N86W 28N88W 26N91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE WEST OF 26N91W 23N94W 20N96W...AND BANKED UP ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N EAST OF 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W...STAYING SOUTH OF 25N57W... AND IT CONTINUES EASTWARD BEYOND 22N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N74W JUST EAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 24N74W CYCLONIC CENTER TOWARD NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...FROM JUST EAST OF JAMAICA TO WESTERN CUBA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N64W 15N68W 16N73W 19N78W 22N83W...AND ELSEWHERE IN OTHER LINES OF LOW CLOUDS AND CONFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W WITH A RIDGE FROM 23N67W BEYOND 32N62W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 84W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... PASSING THROUGH 33N30W TO 21N30W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 26N40W 27N52W BEYOND 32N58W. A SECOND DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 33N30W 21N30W TROUGH...IS BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTH BY THE ADVANCING 33N30W 21N30W TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N EVERYWHERE ELSE AWAY FROM THE EAST ATLANTIC-TO- CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT FROM 32N27W BEYOND 32N58W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN EAST-WEST RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 7N/8N FROM THE AFRICA COAST TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST. $$ MT