000
AXNT20 KNHC 041738
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 1S45W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 12W-17W.  SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 17W-29W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 34W-40W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRODUCING 
15-20 KT SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER DOMINATES THE GULF.  A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER TEXAS 
ALONG 32N94W 30N100W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE 
FRONT OVER SE TEXAS.  THE FRONT IS PUSHING SE AND IS FORECAST TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SOME UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS ALONG 30N87W 20N97W.  CONVECTION WILL BE 
STRONGEST E OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF.     
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH 
AND THE 1010 MB LOW OVER INLAND COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONGER 
THAN AVERAGE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY E OF 75W.  THE STRONGEST SHOWERS 
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  MORE SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA APPROACHING THE ABC ISLANDS.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
W OF 70W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM E CUBA TO COSTA 
RICA.  THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EXPECT MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N45W 31N55W 32N65W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1029 MB HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N57W.  ANTICYCLONIC 
SURFACE FLOW IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 30W-100W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER.  AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
HOWEVER E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-17N W OF 55W.  A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W 24N26W.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 20W-26W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 65W.  
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM 65W TO W AFRICA.  IN THE 
TROPICS A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES S OF 20N.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 8N15W 
13N60W.  ZONAL FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS.     

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FORMOSA