000 AXNT20 KNHC 041046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 6N16W 2N30W 1N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W TO 1S52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-30W...FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-41W...AND FROM 2N S OF THE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 41W TO INLAND OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-14W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 42W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL US GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM E TEXAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO S OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MOVING OVER N TEXAS AND WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE TODAY INTO SAT. BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING OVER MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO 84W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF S OF A FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES FROM THE W ATLC. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC. SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 83W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM W CUBA TO 26N E OF 87W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN 72W-85W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 69W-82W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N87W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IT CROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM W CUBA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS W OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS N OF THE REGION EXTENDING FROM A 1019 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N FROM 76W-80W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 29N56W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC JUST S OF THE AZORES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 32W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N16W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N24W. A SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N31W. A SMALL 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N32W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN. $$ WALLACE