000 AXNT20 KNHC 031036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 1N23W 2N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR 3N E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 6W-8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 8W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING OVER MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SE US INTO THE FAR W ATLC. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF S OF A FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINS INLAND. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS N OF 26N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE GULF WILL EXIT THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... PERSISTENT NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN 72W-83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 69W-79W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N82W TO 12N80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 77W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING A COLD FRONT JUST INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N72W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US JUST N OF THE FLORIA/GEORGIA BORDER AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N FROM 74W-80W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 35W NARROWING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N54W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W-77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 67W-77W TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 22N E OF 37W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N23W EXTENDING S TO 25N25W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO SW AFRICA. $$ WALLACE