000 AXNT20 KNHC 030001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 6N. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS PRECIPITATION. ...DISCUSSION... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 46W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 70W AND 84W IN WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 30N...AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. A CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR 27N61W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 11N TO 20N INCLUDING CUTTING ACROSS JAMAICA. THE TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY NOT AS WELL DEFINED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND IT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR THIS TROUGH MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAN IT IS TO THE TROUGH. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW...SOUTH OF 18N WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EASILY EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AS ONLY THE 1020 MB ISOBAR CUTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 40W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N31W TO 29N28W TO 25N28W. THE TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE IN PHASE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 30N27W TO 24N30W AND 22N32W. A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N55W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N27W 22N32W COLD FRONT AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND AN EAST-WEST RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 10N FROM THE AFRICA COAST TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST. ANOTHER RIDGE IS ALONG 12N25W 22N21W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...BEYOND THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO. $$ MT