000 AXNT20 KNHC 021040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 3N10W 4N23W 2N32W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 2S47W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 9W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 14W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-28W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-31W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 41W-46W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERING MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST WITH A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON. THIS FRONT WILL SKIRT THE N GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE GULF WILL EXIT THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT REMAINS INLAND. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 12N BETWEEN THE PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL CUBA. AN INFLUX OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-81W COVERING S HAITI...W CUBA AND JAMAICA. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 12N72W TO THE S TIP OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-71W TO OVER PUERTO RICO GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E HISPANIOLA COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 67W-71W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS USHERING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W CENTERED NEAR 31N61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND E CUBA NEAR 77W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W ATLC S OF 27N BETWEEN 71W-78W. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OFF THE E COAST OF THE US WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N80W TO BEYOND 32N77W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH GEORGIA TO THE LOW CENTERED OVER HOUSTON TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 26N36W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N45W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 24N E OF 63W AND THE E CARIBBEAN INTO E ATLC. $$ WALLACE