000 AXNT20 KNHC 020526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 2N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 19W-24W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-28W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 4W-17W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS RETROGRADING WESTWARD BUT REMAINS OVER MEXICO...TEXAS AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE US FROM SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. A WEAK JETSTREAM WITH WINDS TO 90 KT EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF COAST NEAR ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO OVER W CUBA NEAR PINAR DEL RIO AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST THAT WILL SKIRT THE N GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE NEXT FRONT TO IMPACT THE GULF EXITING THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT REMAINS INLAND. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING OFF W CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-86W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN THE PUERTO RICO AND CENTRAL CUBA WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW S OF HAITI NEAR 16N73W. AN INFLUX OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER W CUBA AND OVER THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E HISPANIOLA COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 66W-73W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AND IS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER HIGH IS MOVING S INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W CENTERED NEAR 31N60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SE TO S FLOW CONVERGING WITH UPPER LEVEL N TO NW FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 33W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N40W TO 21N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N. A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW ATLC FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-75W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E OF 63W AND THE E CARIBBEAN INTO E ATLC WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT. $$ WALLACE