000 AXNT20 KNHC 011023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 5N14W 2N23W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W TO 2S44W. THE ITCZ IN THE ATLC REMAINS VERY ACTIVE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED STRONG WITH LARGE EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD COVERING AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 8W-28W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-8W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION STILL COVERS MEXICO AND S TEXAS INTO THE GULF W OF 83W. STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIPPING S TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 28N W OF 88W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AS FAR S AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS TO 110 KT COVERS THE US FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SW ALABAMA THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND DIPS DRAMATICALLY S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND THE COAST OF MEXICO BUT NO OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS S OF 26N E OF 83W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 14N BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND W CUBA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA. A WEAK JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE N CARIBBEAN FOLLOWING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-78W COVERING HAITI AND E CUBA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO SW UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...POSSIBLE PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WAVE...IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS BETWEEN 62W-67W INCLUDING THE N LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC TO 45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING W TO 25N53W DISSIPATING TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N FROM 70W-76W EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND FORCING THE UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E OF 60W AND THE S CARIBBEAN COVERING E ATLC E OF 45W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE