000 AXNT20 KNHC 010512 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N15W 2N28W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO 1S46W. THE ITCZ IN THE ATLC BECOME VERY ACTIVE LATE ON MON WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOW MOVING WESTWARD COVERING THE AREA FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 1W-11W AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W-26W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION STILL COVERS MEXICO AND S TEXAS INTO THE GULF W OF 86W. STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AS FAR S AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A RELATIVELY STRONG JETSTREAM COVERS THE S US TO SW GEORGIA THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND DIPS DRAMATICALLY S ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE NW ATLC RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND THE COAST OF MEXICO BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FURTHER S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 15N BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND W CUBA. A WEAK JETSTREAM EXTENDING S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-78W COVERING HAITI WITH PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA W TO SW UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...POSSIBLE PRE-SEASON TROPICAL WAVE...IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS W OF 65W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC TO 45W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING W TO 25N60W DISSIPATING NEAR STATIONARY TO 26N69W. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO 26N46W AND IS DENOTED AS A WIND SHIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 41W-47W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N FROM 71W-77W EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND FORCING THE UPPER TROUGH S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E OF 60W AND THE S CARIBBEAN COVERING E ATLC E OF 45W WITH ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION E OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE