000 AXNT20 KNHC 311804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 4N TO 2N10W 1N20W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W...TO 1S40W AND INTO NORTHEASTER BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND JUST OFF THE COAST IN AFRICA WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 8N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN 5N3W 6N5W 5N9W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N9W TO THE EQUATOR 20W...AND WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 20W TO 1S25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5S BETWEEN 25W AND 35W...FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM THE COAST TO 4S BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 6S BETWEEN 20W AND 50W IN THE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N76W TO 12N79W. THIS TROUGH PASSES JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO 270 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...CROSSING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES... TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST FROM 31N80W TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND BEYOND. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N80W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N... CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W...TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE BAHAMAS... PARTS OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE 32N60W 26N71W 16N76W 12N79W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FAR WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF 27N...ACROSS MEXICO SOUTH OF 28N. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS MEXICO NORTH OF 27N/28N. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO IN ORDER TO COVER TEXAS SOUTH OF 30N EAST OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO BEYOND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 61W/62W FROM 12N TO 20N IS SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N60W 26N71W 16N76W 12N79W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N TO 22N TO 32N. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN NORTHERN AFRICA AND 33W. $$ MT