000
AXNT20 KNHC 311026
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 2N16W 1N40W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 46W TO 1S50W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN 
ITCZ S OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-41W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N TO S OF 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-48W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS WITHIN 50 NM OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 10W-29W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO 
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE GULF W OF 90W. BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH COVERS THE SE US AND THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC DIPPING S 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT MOVING SSW EXTENDS FROM A 1021 
MB LOW JUST OFF THE THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA S OF MELBOURNE TO S OF TAMPA THEN NW TO THE 
FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT 
TO OVER FLORIDA BUT NO SHOWERS ARE INDICATED. A SURFACE RIDGE 
REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF N OF 21N E OF 94W AND IS BEING 
BRIDGED BY THE FRONT ABOVE RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE 
W GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO AND TEXAS BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY INDICATED. OTHERWISE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE N 
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS UNDER NEAR 
ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AREA DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH 
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE 
GENERATED N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 71W-79W 
INCLUDING JAMAICA AND N OF 20N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 
79W-82W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO 
THE W ATLC TO 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
REGION NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING W TO 28N64W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE N 
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA 
JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA S 
OF MELBOURNE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM FROM OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIA W 
OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N79W TO INLAND OVER 
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER LOW 
JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. 

$$
WALLACE