000
AXNT20 KNHC 302333
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A 
SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 2S19W ALONG 4S25W TO 5S31W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 23W-34W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF. 
MODERATE SELY RETURN FLOW COVER THE GULF AND IS ADDING LOW-LEVEL 
INFLOW TO AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NW GULF MOVING NNE NEAR 20 KT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT 
AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES UP TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN 
USHERING IN PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS LIMITING ANY VERTICAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS. A LINE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS 
HAS EMERGED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION IS SPILLING INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER 
THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF CUBA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE 
GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N60W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD 
ALONG 29N66W TO 30N72W WHERE IS BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 31N78W 
TO THE FLORIDA COAST JUST SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE. THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY IS INTERSECTED BY A TROUGH NEAR 31N79W. THE TROUGH 
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 26N80W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
LIGHTING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 
THIS INTERSECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 77W AND THE E COAST OF 
FLORIDA. A LINE OF SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFF THE SE 
COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 25N-28N W OF 78W. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 
63W-69W AND TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 
72W-76W. THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1030 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 35N28W. BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE ATLC W 
OF 54W ENHANCING THE SURFACE FEATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WADDINGTON