000
AXNT20 KNHC 292336
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 1N23W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 35W TO 3S44W. A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS A SOUTHERN ITCZ 
EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR AT 14W TO 3S27W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
1N26W 3N35W 1N45W LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A 1S17W 3S26W 6S34W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND 
FLORIDA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FROM ABOUT 23N TO 28N 
WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS OF 55 TO 65 
KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT LIES JUST INLAND FROM THE 
TEXAS COAST. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF AND 
ARE STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH 
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST 
WINDS...TO 50 KNOTS...OVER THE NW PART. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
REVEALS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE 
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA. LAST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE MOSTLY SCATTERED WESTWARD 
MOVING CLOUDS. THE ONLY AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA AND ALSO OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO 
AND PARTS OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA CONTINUE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE 
MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS 
LOCATED ALONG 75W N OF 20N. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 6 TO 
8 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS MODEL AT 300 
MB...AND CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS...INDICATES 
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WESTERLIES FROM ABOUT 18N TO 25N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE 65 TO 75 KNOT RANGE. 
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 22N N OF 23W. A 50 KNOT JET EXTENDS FROM 
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N35W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 17N. AT THE 
SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 30N75W TO THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STRONG 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 
33N34W. EAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE 
AREA W OF ABOUT 60W IN 36 HOURS.

$$
CAB