000 AXNT20 KNHC 282343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-31W...AND WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING E ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND ERN GULF ALONG 86W WITH A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED BEHIND IT. THIS JET IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WRN GULF. BROKEN PATCHES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE ERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE FORWARD PROGRESS OVER SE TEXAS AND EXTREME NRN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT TRAVEL MUCH FURTHER S AS IT LACKS SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES DROPS SWD TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT. THIS MAY ALSO INCREASE SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE WRN WATERS AND THE FLA STRAITS. CARIBBEAN... SW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SUBSIDENCE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW PORTION ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADE WINDS REGIME IS UNDER FAIR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE ERN WATERS/LESSER ANTILLES AND IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA. THESE PATCHES ARE SHALLOW IN NATURE SUPPRESSED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MOIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SW BAHAMAS. ATLANTIC... A DYING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ATLC ALONG 32N42W 30N53W 32N62W 27N73W. THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH IT AND THE FLOW ALOFT NOW NEARLY ZONAL. AN INTERESTING CLOUD STRUCTURE...KNOWN AS A "SCREAMING EAGLE"...HAS BROKEN OFF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 25N76W TO 30N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA...ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 28N. FARTHER S...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N68W AND IS MOVING WNW TOWARDS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC LIES TO THE S OF BROAD SFC RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N46W. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE/E TRADES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NLY FLOW NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 15N-22N. ALOFT...BROAD WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR S AS 10N EXCEPT FOR A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MADEIRA ISLAND TO 30N25W TO 10N34W. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIES TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOWARDS MOROCCO. OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE SAHARAN DESERT AND A THICK PLUME OF SAND/DUST HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA FROM 13N-21N E OF 20W....EASILY SEEN ON EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY. $$ CANGIALOSI