000 AXNT20 KNHC 281009 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N11W 3N24W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO 2S46W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 5W-9W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE HAS RETREATED EASTWARD AND NOW COVERS THE E GULF AND CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE E GULF THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN E/W COMPONENT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND GIVING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKER TRADE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 16N TO THE ABC ISLANDS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS THE THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA TO NE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING ALONG 29N49W 27N63W TO OVER THE EASTERN MOST TURKS AND CAICOS. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL NE OF TRINIDAD NEAR 12N58W NE TO 32N48W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 55W-68W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1029 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION AND THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE E THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N21W SW INTO ALONG 21N31W INTO THE TROPICS TO 13N37W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND INLAND OVER W AFRICA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE FRONT ACTUALLY BISECTING IT AND A 1028 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N29W. $$ WALLACE