000 AXNT20 KNHC 272343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N W OF 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING THANKS TO WIDESPREAD DRY SINKING AIR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE AIR IS MOST STABLE OVER THE SE WATERS DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE TAIL END OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS W FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF COAST PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW...EXCEPT SLY TO 20 KT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST INFLUENCED BY A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN SLIGHTLY BY SAT AS CARIBBEAN MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT FRONT...SPREADS INTO THE SRN WATERS. THE NRN WATERS WILL ALSO MOISTEN SOME AS A FRONT NEARS THE N GULF COAST TOMORROW. THIS FRONT... HOWEVER...IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO ENTER THE REGION AS SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINS ITS HOLD. CARIBBEAN... THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH HAS GREATLY DECREASED THE MOISTURE ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS NARROW BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVING NE OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A REMNANT FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED FROM ERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE STILL POOLING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEARBY LAND AREAS ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE ...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS...STEERED BY THE TRADES...ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS. THESE MOISTURE PATCHES ARE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE TYPICAL REGIME FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DUE TO A PAIR OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS. ONE OF THESE ARE ALONG 69W/70W AND THE OTHER IS JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOVER OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY FROM 31N46W TO 26N61W THEN CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT TO ERN CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE LIES N OF THE FRONT FROM E OF BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA IS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NEAR 27N66W ENHANCED BY A NEWLY FORMED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES W OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR SKIES W OF 74W. FARTHER E...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 4N52W NEWD TO 32N38W...PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT INVERSION THAT IS KEEPING THE TRADE WIND CUMULUS CLUSTERS SHALLOW WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. EAST ATLANTIC... THE LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK HAS NOW CUT OFF INTO A LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N28W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 4N43W. AN UPPER JET LIES TO THE E OF THE LOW EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N34W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THEN TURNS E ACROSS ALGERIA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM THE TROPICS GENERALLY FROM THE CAPE VERDES NWD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 22W. AT THE SFC...A 1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N27W IS MAINTAINING NE/E 15-20 KT TRADES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 19N DUE TO TYPICAL TROUGHING OVER THE CONTINENT. $$ CANGIALOSI