000 AXNT20 KNHC 261738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W...WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-36W AND S OF 1N W OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SHIFTED JUST E OF THE AREA OVER AND OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT ELY IN THE E GULF THEN TURNING SLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER THE NW WATERS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS QUICKLY MODIFIED THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS WEEK...THOUGH TODAY IS STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER THAN NORMAL OVER FLORIDA AND THE ERN WATERS. SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BLOWING IN WITH THE FLOW OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS. THERE MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS...BUT ITS NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING OVER THE ERN WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING VERY DRY AIR E OF 95W...PROVIDING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. THE SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING E SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE CARIB. THE BASE OF A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM WRN CUBA TO THE SW CARIB PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM HAITI TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER ALONG 19N72W 15N83W. BEHIND THE FRONT...NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA ALONG 31/32N. A LARGE BLOCKING MID-UPPER RIDGE OVER AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS PREVENTED FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. STRONG SWLY WINDS...BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE...IS PRODUCING AND TRANSPORTING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CAPPING THE SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES. THESE SHALLOW MOISTURE PATCHES ARE MOST ORGANIZED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER FLATTENING TROUGH LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC. THE GREATEST DIG IN THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE FAR N WATERS ALONG 57W. THIS TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 26N61W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND 150 NM W OF THE STATIONARY PORTION. MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EWD BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. SE COAST. DEEP LAYER RIDGING HAS NARROWED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING NE FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO 32N44W. SW WINDS ALOFT...BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING TO THE W...IS ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 19N68W TO 31N47W. THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA OVER THE AZORES...ANALYZED 1033 MB. THE E ATLC LIES BENEATH A LARGE AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN EMBEDDED LOW NEAR 27N31W. DRY SINKING AIR LIES OVER MUCH OF THE E ATLC SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ. STRONG SLY WINDS ALOFT IS SHEARING CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ SPREADING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS NWD TO ABOUT 10N. $$ CANGIALOSI