000
AXNT20 KNHC 261043
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N12W 1N19W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO 2S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-34W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 34W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS IN THE 
THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF 
ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA WITH A 1030 MB 
HIGH. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING MUCH OF THE GULF RETURN FLOW BANKING 
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO AND TEXAS BUT NOT 
PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATE THE GULF. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BROKEN COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 84W-90W. THE 
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST W OF JAMAICA TO FAR 
NE HONDURAS. THIS IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 19N70W ALONG 19N78W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 
15N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE S WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE 
REGION USHERING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N 
OF A LINE FROM ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT VINCENT 
ISLANDS ALONG 15N66W TO SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
REGION NEAR 32N57W TO 24N66W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS 
EASTERN MOST ISLANDS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 
25N63W TO BEYOND 32N56W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC IS 
W OF FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH 
CAROLINA NEAR 31N79W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THE UPPER HIGH IN THE S WINDWARD TO BEYOND 
32N47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N24W SSW INTO THE 
TROPICS TO 12N40W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE 
FAR E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER NW 
AFRICA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E 
OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION AND SW 
OF THE AZORES. 

$$
WALLACE