000 AXNT20 KNHC 241740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N13W 1N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32N TO 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-33W AND WITHIN 240 NM N BETWEEN 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN SURGING SWD OVER S MEXICO E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 93W DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND OVER MEXICO. STRONG N TO NE WINDS...PRODUCED BY THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER SW ARKANSAS...HAS ADVECTED A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE WRN CARIB IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING SFC FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WRN CUBA TO THE NE PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN SWD JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE. A SFC TROUGH LIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 17N84W TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AND 90 NM OF THE TROUGH LINE. A STRONGER FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SRN GULF...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY INCREASING NLY WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND IT OVER THE NW PORTION. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. FAIRLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE...IS ADVECTING A BROKEN SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 70W-83W S OF 15N AND 68W-77W N OF 15N. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING NW...AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF MODERATE TO STRONG ATLC RIDGING...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND FAR NE CARIB WATERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LIE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION. THE LEADING FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N70W TO A 1014 MB LOW JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W TO WRN CUBA. THE MAIN BOUNDARY LIES JUST BEHIND ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N74W TO S FLORIDA. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT...E OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE SFC FEATURES IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N68W TO 21N75W. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN STRIKES IN THESE CLOUDS SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 74W-79W. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER THE FAR N WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE S SIDE OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRES. A DEEP LAYER MID TO UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 55W-60W. THE SFC HIGH IS ANALYZED 1032 MB NEAR 36N43W. THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE LOW NEAR 28N32W ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORMING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N24W IS MOVING SW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS N. THIS LOW HAS A DISSIPATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY BASED ON ITS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF THE FAINT TRIPLE POINT...N OF 26N E OF 28W. $$ CANGIALOSI