000 AXNT20 KNHC 231733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 13W-19W... FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 23W-29W...FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 45W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W MOVING E. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N85W 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER N...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS TO N MEXICO ALONG 30N80W 28N86W 28N97W 29N105W. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THIS FRONT. MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS 10-20 KT NLY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 86W COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 25N AND E OF 96W. EXPECT..THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH S AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WITH CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N AND E OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOSTLY VOID OF SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING PREDOMINATELY SWLY FLOW. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...SOME SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...W CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO 29N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO 28N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N22W 26N21W 19N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N20W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N66W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO EXTEND FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N22W IN 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA