000
AXNT20 KNHC 221059
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 2S30W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W TO 3S/4S AT 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NORTH
OF 23N AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA IN BETWEEN 29N83W 26N92W 26N97W 
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER THE 
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N88W. 
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 
18N89W IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF 
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W
AND 88W. THE FORECAST ULTIMATELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOR
THE STATIONARY FRONT TO GAIN SOME MOMENTUM AND MOVE NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N78W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO THE NORTH AND 
NORTHEAST...CURVING ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 14N...AND INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE BAND 
OF MOISTURE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THAT IS ON TOP OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWINDS...EAST
OF 80W NORTH OF 12N65W 15N67W 13N75W 12N79W 9N81W...AND SOUTH
OF 18N WEST OF 80W. LIGHT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 20N64W TO 25N36W. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF THE RIDGE...TOWARD THE BASE 
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N49W. 
THE DEEP LAYER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 
TO 27N61W TO 26N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N67W
TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N72W. A 1020 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N53W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 
32N45W TO 29N50W 28N60W 26N70W BEYOND 25N80W. AN EASTERN 
ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT...
NOW PASSING THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N30W 22N36W 20N46W. THE SOUTHERN 
END OF A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N27W TO 28N25W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

$$
MT