000
AXNT20 KNHC 211052
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR AT 38W...AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH 
OF 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT NOW PASSES THROUGH 
BERMUDA TO 29N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N78W TO NORTHWESTERN 
COASTAL CUBA TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N86W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WESTERN 
HONDURAS...CURVING ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF 20N87W 16N83W...AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF 
THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF 
THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS 
MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WEST OF 50W IS COURTESY OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N61W.
A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N61W INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N78W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 
THE LINE THROUGH 14N60W TO 13N69W 13N74W. THIS PHENOMENON IS THE 
RESULT OF THE 32N55W 16N78W RIDGE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA 
AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD.
THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ROUGHLY IS FROM 11N TO 
14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KT
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N EAST OF 80W NORTHEAST 
WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT EXCEPT TO 12 FT NORTHERLY SWELL IN 
EXPOSED NORTHEASTERN PASSAGES. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 
FOR EXACT DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE CENTRAL-TO-
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N38W 20N41W...
DISSIPATING FROM 20N41W TO 17N46W AND 15N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N 
BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS 
IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA...AND PASSES THROUGH 16N46W 
22N30W BEYOND 25N20W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
TROUGH.

$$
MT