000
AXNT20 KNHC 191816
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N24W 2N37W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 42W THEN CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 
2S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 7W-10W.  CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-4N 
BETWEEN 26W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-5N BETWEEN 33W-43W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO ALONG 30N88W 24N90W 17N95W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
HAS GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 24N ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  20-30 
KT WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  NWLY WINDS ARE N 
OF FRONT WHILE SELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED SKIES ARE OVER THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
THUS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS 
FROM NE MEXICO TO LOUISIANA.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES S 
OF GUADALOUPE ALONG 16N60W 15N67W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM OF THE FRONT.  MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA MOSTLY E OF 85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE 
AREA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN...AND THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W 
AND EXTENDS SW TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 28N42W 20N50W 
16N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E 
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N ON 
BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR 
40N29W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N28W 
15N48W.  A PLUME AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC E OF 50W AND S OF 16N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
IS W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-70W.  ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC S OF 30N.  EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO THE E ATLANTIC IN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 32N35W TO 17N50W.

$$
FORMOSA