000
AXNT20 KNHC 171758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N20W 2N36W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 2S44W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 7W-15W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM EQ-4N 
BETWEEN 30W-35W.     

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND 
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 26N84W.  A WARM FRONT 
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA HOWEVER FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 
89W-92W.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING UP IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE AT 20-25 KT ON 
BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT... THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH TO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END 
OF THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH S TO CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH NO 
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA MOSTLY S OF 17N.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 
13N72W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
S OF 14N HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N53W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N56W 
23N70W 24N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N AND E OF 54W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N62W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 25N34W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A PLUME AFRICAN DUST IS 
NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC E OF 28W AND S OF 16N.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  A TROUGH 
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-40W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 30N25W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N 
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE QUICKLY E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 32N45W TO PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL 
CUBA.  22N65W.  ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. 

$$
FORMOSA