000
AXNT20 KNHC 171025
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N16W 2N36W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 42W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 2N5W 4N7W TO 4N11W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 
27W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-17W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
20W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL 
ATLC DRAGGING AN STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS INTO THE GULF JUST N OF 
THE FLORIDA KEYS THEN RETREATING N TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA 
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE THAT 
COVERS THE E U.S. AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALL OF THE 
ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH 
ONLY BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RATHER CLEAR AGAIN 
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEING 
DRAWN FURTHER N AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE NW GULF LATE TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BETWEEN THE 
WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
AIR COVERING THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
COVER THE AREA USHERING ONE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC 
DIPPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N FROM 55W-75W 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION WELL E OF 
BERMUDA NEAR 32N58W ALONG 25N69W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST N 
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD RAPIDLY E OF 
65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 
FROM 28N60W TO BEYOND 32N55W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE 
S/CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS THE W TROPICAL ATLC BRINGING STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THAT AREA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC N OF 
19N FROM 25W-50W WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. THE WEAKEST IS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N39W WITH A SECOND STRONGER ON CENTERED NE NEAR 
29N28W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF COLD FRONT IN 
THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC WITH A PERSISTENT 1019 MB HIGH N OF THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. 

$$
WALLACE