000
AXNT20 KNHC 170458
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 3S43W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-6W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
32W-42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW ATLC 
INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC DRAGGING AN COLD FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA 
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO NAPLES ALONG 25N86W THEN PULLING UP NEAR 
STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. ALL OF 
THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 
WITH A THIN LOW LEVEL CLOUD BAND THE ONLY INDICATION OF A FRONT 
ACROSS THE GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LEAVING THE GULF RATHER CLEAR 
AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEING 
DRAWN FURTHER N AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE NW GULF LATE TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST E OF THE 
ABC ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING 
THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA 
USHERING IN SMALL CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS FROM 15N-18N W OF 65W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW ATLC INTO THE 
N/CENTRAL ATLC DIPPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N 
FROM 59W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION 
E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W ALONG 28N73W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT 
LAUDERDALE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS MOVING 
EASTWARD RAPIDLY E OF 70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N68W TO BEYOND 32N60W. BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
W ATLC INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS THE W TROPICAL ATLC 
BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THAT AREA. 
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO 
THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 25W-50W WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. 
THE WEAKEST IS CENTERED NEAR 25N43W WITH A SECOND STRONGER ON 
CENTERED NE NEAR 30N30W. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP 
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N33W BUT DUE TO THE RELATIVE 
DRY AIR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS 
THE ATLC E OF COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC WITH A 
PERSISTENT 1020 MB HIGH N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 23N63W. 

$$
WALLACE