000
AXNT20 KNHC 161809
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 3N14W 2N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 14W-23W...
AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 33W-45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 27N86W 27N94W.  A WARM FRONT 
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N97W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS HOWEVER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 
92W-97W.  SURFACE WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM 
THE NE TO E AT 20 KT WHILE S OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE FROM THE SE 
AT 5-10 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 88W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  
EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH NO CONVECTION.  ALSO 
EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W TO DISSIPATE IN 24 
HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A 
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN INLAND 
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N 
OF 15N AND E OF 70W...AND N OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 
15N-20N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W.  
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N70W AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N AND E OF 74W.  NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION 
IS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N63W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N28W TO 26N35W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS W 
OF 60W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS BETWEEN 20W-60W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N33W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 
30W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE QUICKLY 
E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE ALONG 
32N49W 22N65W.  ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER FRONT TO BECOME 
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

$$
FORMOSA