000
AXNT20 KNHC 161031
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 3N12W 2N29W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 3S42W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA 
BETWEEN 40W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 21W ACROSS THE 
PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 1.5N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND IS NOW ALONG THE 
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA DRAGGING AN COLD FRONT ACROSS S GEORGIA 
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA WHERE IT WEAKENS 
RAPIDLY INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED 
ENERGY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS WELL E OF THE FRONT OVER THE W 
ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY STABLE AIR LEAVING THE GULF RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 
92W AND OVER NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W AS WELL AS OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE 
GULF LATE TODAY WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING INTO THE 
NW GULF LATE TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST N OF THE 
ABC ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING 
THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA. 
EVEN THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR SUPPRESSED THIS 
MORNING WITH ONLY ONE AREA HAVING SOME SIGNIFICANCE NE OF 
HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-84W...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL 
EASTERLY FLOW IS COUPLED WITH THE WESTERN UPPER FLOW CONVERGE. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
MAJOR FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF ON TUE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA 
COAST GROSSING GEORGIA INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. THESE STORMS 
ARE N OF 31N FROM 65W-75W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
THESE STORMS WHICH IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF THE 
REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO 
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/ 
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N46W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER 
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 26W-40W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING 
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N30W TO 28N34W CONTINUING 
AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W AND 
BRIDGING THE FRONT/TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. A BENIGN 
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC BUT IS PRODUCING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. 

$$
WALLACE