000 AXNT20 KNHC 142351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 3N13W 3N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG 3S37W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO 26N85W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 125 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM SPREADING TO 150 NM FROM 23N96W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NE FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF HAS ENCOUNTERED MODERATE SW SURFACE FLOW AND THE JETSTREAM TO FORM A SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE AT 14/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER ALONG 26N84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN NAPLES AND FORT MYERS TO WEST PALM BEACH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE SAT CLIPPING THE N GULF AND EXITING LATE SUN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W LEAVING THAT AREA CLEAR THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS N INTO THE W ATLC. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN LIGHT/ MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTION IS TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NE VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED AND MAY DRIFT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. A JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT N OF A LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 27N69W TO 22N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED OVER THE S FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MOVING OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND COUPLED WITH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED OVER THE NE GULF COVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 78W. THE WEAK LOW/FRONT THAT WAS IN THE W ATLC HAS DISSIPATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N70W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N FROM 40W-60W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 25N49W TO 25N56W WEAKENING TO 30N73W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH N OF THE FRONT NEAR 33N60W AND A 1019 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 28W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE