000
AXNT20 KNHC 141719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N5W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 
30W THEN ALONG 1S35W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W.  WIDESPREAD 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 19W-44W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DEPICTED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA 
BORDER ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH 
ARE APPARENT ON DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 27N AND 
E OF 89W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 10-15 KT 
SOUTHERLY FLOW COVERING THE GULF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN 
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT 
AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND A 
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN LIGHT 
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. AN UPPER RIDGE...ANCHORED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N72W...IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N. UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA IS STREAMING AROUND THE 
HIGH AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. OTHERWISE...PATCHES OF 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE PROGRESSING WESTWARD 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N74W. AN 
ASSOCIATED WARM FROM EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N72W TO 
28N70W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N72W 
25N71W 24N73W TO 23N77W. THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT 
LIFTING N OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FLOW AROUND A 
WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N61W. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 26N58W. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY...MOSTLY N OF 28N. THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N22W AND EXTENDS TO 27N29W. DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
ATLC W OF 40W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC 
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 9N37W.

    

$$
WADDINGTON