000
AXNT20 KNHC 141046
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 
30W THEN ALONG 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-22W... 
FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 22W-36W...AND FROM 2S-EQ BETWEEN 36W-47W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W.  10-15 
KT SELY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF PRODUCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 
COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 84W-90W MOVING E.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS 
ALONG 78W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 
24N AND W OF 90W.   CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REST OF THE 
GULF.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY E WITH 
CONVECTION TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A 130 KT 
UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF...N FLORIDA...AND W 
ATLANTIC.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A 
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA...THE ABC 
ISLANDS...AND N COLOMBIA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N 
CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE NE 
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NEAR 11N61W.  A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW TO BELIZE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO 
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W.  A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 25N73W 22N80W.  A WARM 
FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N70W.  A COLD FRONT CONTINUES 
E FROM THE WARM FRONT ALONG 28N60W 28N54W 32N46W.  A 1020 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W 26N30W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS ...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A NARROW TROUGH IS 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  
A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 15W-40W.  
EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES TO MOVE QUICKLY E DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.       

$$
FORMOSA