000
AXNT20 KNHC 121026
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N16W 1N25W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO 3S44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/  
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE COAST OF SW AFRICA TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR W OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 10W-34W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. AND THE GULF N OF 
25N WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW 
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST INTO THE GULF JUST S OF TAMPA FLORIDA 
ALONG 24N86W OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W THEN S 
MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A REMNANT STATIONARY 
BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF 
MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE ACROSS 
THE N GULF LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE 
OF THE FRONT. THE S GULF IS DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA W UPPER 
FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT 
ANCHORED ALONG THE E TEXAS COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS 
CHRISTI. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING BANKED ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO AND THE FAR SW GULF TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG 
THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 130 
KT IS ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO 
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE 
GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN IN THE W ATLC ON LATE IN THE 
DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF 
ON SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MODERATE NE TO 
E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF 18N FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 
68W W OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 81W USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E U.S. 
IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 
30N80W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N77W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 27N-32N 
BETWEEN 73W-78W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC 
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N47W TO 27N63W WHERE IT WEAKENS AND 
BECOMES A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS 
NEAR 27N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN AND 
S GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC 
EXTENDING FROM 22N45W TO 15N48W BUT DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE AREA THERE IS 
ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E 
ATLC E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. AN 
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
NEAR 12N24W AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD AND COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC E 
OF 25W. 

$$
WALLACE