000 AXNT20 KNHC 102353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 1N20W 1S30W 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS EAST OF 23W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N TO THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A NEW COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF FOLLOWED BY NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25KT. AT 2245Z...BUOY 42020 LOCATED NEAR 27N97W WAS REPORTING NE WINDS OF 30KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO LIGHTNING DATA...TSTMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED N OF 27N. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS. PATCHY SHALLOW CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 86W N OF 24N. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED SOME WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S..THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL GULF TUE AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... AND DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...INCLUDING ALSO THE GREATER ANTILLES. A BROAD AND ELONGATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE TAIL END REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AND STABLE AIS MASS MAINLY EAST OF 80W. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 21Z A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL FRAGMENTS OF OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN UNDER A NELY WIND FLOW. SOME OF THEM ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N60W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 28N66W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 120-130 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEFINES THE FRONT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A 1030 MB HIGH EXITING THE MID ATLC STATES IS PRODUCING MODERATE NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE W ATLC JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THIS CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SFC TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 47W/48W FROM 24N-31N. THIS TROUGH IS A REFLECTION OF A DISSIPATING CUT-OFF LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WWD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS SFC TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE N END OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR 32N43W TO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN AND NE VENEZUELA. STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BEYOND 23N37W. A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA. A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N27W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE COMBINATION OF THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER AFRICA IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN THE CANARY/CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN. $$ GR