000
AXNT20 KNHC 101744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N16W 1N24W 2S35W 2S44W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N E OF 3W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
15W-17W AND FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 8W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PATCHY SHALLOW CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS COVER MUCH 
OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY S OF 24N AND W OF 91W ENHANCED BY A 
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. A SIMILAR ENHANCEMENT 
IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE E GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 84W-86W 
NEAR A LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENT 
ENVIRONMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET 
IS SUPPRESSING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL 
TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND WILL MOVE 
OVER THE N GULF IN 12-24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER 
THE W CARIB NEAR 14N81W WHILE A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO N VENEZUELA. THE 
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS IS STRONGLY 
SUBSIDENT...ESPECIALLY E OF 75W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS 
CONFLUENT. AT THE SFC...A DISSIPATING STALLED FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N80W 19N88W. THIS 
BOUNDARY IS NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER AND SHOULD 
WASH OUT LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM 
THE NE TO SW ACROSS THE SEA MAINLY E OF 77W STEERED BY MODERATE 
TO STRONG TRADES. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOCATED FROM 32N61W TO 27N69W...CONTINUES 
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SE THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND 
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO W CUBA. LOW AND 
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM W 
OF THE STATIONARY S PORTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
FRONT AND A 1033 MB HIGH OVER SE VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING NE WINDS 
TO 25 KT. THIS CONDITION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. 

THE OTHER NOTABLE SFC FEATURE IS THE REFLECTION OF A DISSIPATING 
CUT OFF LOW...PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS WITHIN 
480 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS 31N44W 24N49W. THIS SFC 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE N END OF A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH. STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS 
PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING 
CONVECTION NEAR THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. A 1030 MB HIGH S 
OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W IS ENHANCING NE TRADES IN THE E ATLC 
TODAY. THIS CONDITION WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE AND WEAKENS.

$$
CANGIALOSI/FIORINO