000 AXNT20 KNHC 101020 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N13W 2N20W 2N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF A LINE FROM BEYOND THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 8W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF UPPER SW FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E U.S. IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ALL BU THE NE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 115 KT IS OVER THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING SKIRTING THE N GULF AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR N BELIZE AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 80W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE SE COAST OF CUBA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS AND USHERING IN CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA LIMITING ANY OTHER AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS N OF THE REGION. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N43W SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N45W THROUGH A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 25N46W TO 22N49W BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC THERE IS ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E ATLC TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH NO SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N26W AND COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A JETSTREAM OF WINDS FROM 90 TO 120 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 17N50W 26N33W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 23N15W. $$ WALLACE