000 AXNT20 KNHC 072338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N16W THEN EXTENDING W ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W TO 2S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 31N86W 21N88W AT 21Z. LIGHTNING DATA IS AGAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT DEPICTING A SWATH OF NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. TSTM ACTIVITY IS MORE SPREAD OUT N OF 27N COVERING MUCH OF N FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLC WATERS...DUE TO A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. SOME OF THE TSTMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. BRISK S TO SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY IN THE SQUALLY WEATHER. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN BY GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS...CAUSING HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. THE AIR IS SO COLD THAT SNOW IS FALLING OVER N PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING THE COOL AIRMASS TO PENETRATE E. QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE MID TO UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR E PORTION WHERE UPPER TROUGHING IS INDUCED BY A LARGE CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N38W. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS CAPPING THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES...WHICH ARE MOST ORGANIZED IN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS VEERING TO THE S IN THE NW CARIB AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FAIRLY POTENT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW WATERS LATER TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG NLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.... A LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG AND OFF THE EASTERN U.S. N OF 29N W OF 79W. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR...STRONG SLY WINDS AT THE SFC...OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SE STATES WITH SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT FROM A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. REFER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ROUGH WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE OTHER AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY 1005 MB LOW NEAR 29N38W. THIS ONCE OCCLUDED SYSTEM HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH ONLY A TROUGH ANALYZED SWD FROM THE LOW TO 23N41W. CONVECTION IS SCATTERED IN NATURE WITHIN 420 NM N AND NE OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING TO THE W OF THE LOW JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 37N52W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS CUT OFF SYSTEM DRIFTING TO THE SW AND WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STACKED RIDGE PROVIDING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. WIDESPREAD STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW LIES ABOVE THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL E ATLC BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED ABOVE AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N18W. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ENHANCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ W OF 43W. $$ CANGIALOSI