000 AXNT20 KNHC 071158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W...TO 1S30W...3S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S50W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 4W AND 6W...AND IN SMALL CELLS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 1W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 100W FROM TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N/24N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO NEAR 27N105W. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO 32N107W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE 1003 MB LOW CENTER TO 27N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N84W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N80W...AND BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N86W 26N90W 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDY SKIES ARE NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EVERYWHERE WEST OF 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 65W...THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDESPREAD DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CIRRUS SOUTH OF 12N. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N60W 18N65W BEYOND 20N69W... A REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHER CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W SOUTHWEST OF THE 14N60W 20N69W LINE...BETWEEN 70W AND 82W NORTH OF 12N. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W...TO 20N50W TO 15N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N37W IS HELPING TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N TO 35N BETWEEN 31W AND 43W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW FROM 27N38W TO 31N37W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 30N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM 30N34W TO 28N30W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 30N34W TO 24N34W AND 19N41W. THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N40W 16N50W 14N60W 20N69W. $$ MT