000
AXNT20 KNHC 070606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 37W...TO 1S43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF 5N0.5W...
AND WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N3W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 8N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEW MEXICO/MEXICO TWELVE
HOURS AGO NOW HAS DUG ITS WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND 
NORTHERN MEXICO. IT IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT...FROM EAST TEXAS 
INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N104W. 
A WARM FRONT IS ALONG 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W. THE WARM FRONT IS 
CONNECTED TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 
THE 27N84W TO 28N80W AND BEYOND 32N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM 26N 
TO 29N BETWEEN WESTERN FLORIDA AND 85W...AND FROM 27N TO 29N 
BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR 
THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 65W...THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER 
SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CIRRUS SOUTH OF 12N. BROKEN LOW TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 50 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N60W 18N64W BEYOND 20N67W. OTHER CLUSTERS OF 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W 
SOUTHWEST OF THE 17N60W 20N67W LINE. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS 
STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN 
HAITI. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS A COLD FRONT 
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ON 
SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN....

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A WATER VAPOR 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W...TO 20N50W TO 
15N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 28N37W IS HELPING TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE 
WEST OF THE LOW...PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE 
DETAILS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 
31W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W...AND
FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS 
WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW FROM 27N38W TO 30N37W TO A TRIPLE POINT 
NEAR 28N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM 28N34W TO 27N30W. A COLD 
FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 23N36W AND 21N42W. THE 
REMNANT CLOUD LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALREADY-DISSIPATED 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 20N40W 16N50W 15N57W 20N67W 22N68W.

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MT