000 AXNT20 KNHC 062329 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU MAR 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N17W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-5N W OF 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-38W AND E OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE W GULF ALONG 26N/27N E OF 94W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE E GULF IS CREATING ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER MUCH OF THE NE GULF. LIGHTNING DATA IS VERY STRIKING CLEARING SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. TSTMS ARE A LITTLE MORE SPREAD OUT OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND FLORIDA...DUE TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOCAL SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS OVER TEXAS AND THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT WHICH IS RIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AT THE MOMENT. VERY CONTRASTING WEATHER OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS AS A SNOW STORM IS AFFECTING THE DALLAS AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 90'S F SE OF THE FRONT JUST W OF A NEWLY FORMED DRY LINE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WRN AND MIDDLE GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE MID TO UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR E PORTION WHERE UPPER TROUGHING IS INDUCED BY A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CIRRUS S OF 12N. THIS FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES...WHICH ARE MOST ORGANIZED IN BANDS OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE E CARIB MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. QUICK MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE BANDS. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE TODAY...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NW CORNER ON SAT WHEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.... A WEAKENING STALLED FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN CONTINUING WWD IN THE GULF. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE ALONG 72W N OF 27N IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC PORTION OF THE FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY INACTIVE...BUT IT IS QUITE DIFFERENT OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS. REFER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL E OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT. THE SFC CENTER HAS WEAKENED A TAD SINCE YESTERDAY ANALYZED 1029 MB NEAR 35N53W. THE MID AND UPPER CENTER HAS BECOME GREATLY STRETCHED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING BOTH TO THE E AND W. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE E ATLC IS A 1006 MB LOW SPINNING NEAR 28N37W. THIS DEEP LAYER LOW IS CUT OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALLOWING IT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOST ORGANIZED N OF THE LOW FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 34W-38W. THIS LOW APPEARS OCCLUDED IN NATURE SO WILL LIKELY REPRESENT THAT WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT FROM 28N35W TO 24N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING TO THE W OF THE LOW DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE 1029 MB HIGH TO THE W. UPPER SWLY FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL E ATLC IS ADVECTING PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT OVERALL LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ IS CONSIDERABLY SUBDUED TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ CANGIALOSI