000
AXNT20 KNHC 061133
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
36W TO 2S44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS FROM 8W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 2N06N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 23N87W THEN A WARM 
FRONT TO 23N89W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF 
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO 
MID CLOUDS NW OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM FROM ACROSS N 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 27N90W THEN ACROSS 
NW FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW INTO THE NE PORTION CARIBBEAN WHILE A MID TO UPPER 
RIDGE REMAINS WELL IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN 
CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER 
SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS S OF 15N E OF 80W. THIS 
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL 
CLOUD PATCHES WHICH APPEAR THICKEST S OF HISPANIOLA. QUICK 
MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PATCH S OF 
HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICE.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE TO 30 KT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N 
OF 28N WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT S OF 
28N. MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 45W AND THE FRONT IS DOMINATED 
BY AN DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPLYING THE AREA WITH 
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. E OF THE RIDGE A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N30W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS ON THE NE SIDE OF 
THE LOW FROM 34N33W TO 32N32W THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT TO 
25N35W TO 25N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM 
E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
LOW AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE 
FORCE WINDS TO THE W OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC 
CONTINUES TO LIE IN A WEAK PRES PATTERN ALLOWING WINDS TO BE ON 
THE LIGHT SIDE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH 
NEAR 5N16W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN IN THE ITCZ.

$$
DGS