000
AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
35W TO 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 24N86W THEN A WARM 
FRONT TO 23N89W. DOPPLER RADAR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM SE 
OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 28N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS N OF 
THE FRONT FROM 23N-28N. A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM FROM ACROSS N
CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 27N90W THEN ACROSS 
NW FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
COVERS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW INTO THE NE PORTION CARIBBEAN WHILE A MID TO UPPER 
RIDGE REMAINS WELL IN CONTROL OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN 
CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER 
SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS CLOUDS S OF 15N E OF 78W. THIS 
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL LOW-LEVEL 
CLOUD PATCHES WHICH APPEAR THICKEST S OF HISPANIOLA. QUICK 
MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PATCH S OF 
HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICE.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE 
TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE TO 30 KT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N74W TO E FLORIDA NEAR 
27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE 
FRONT AND RADAR IS ALSO INDICATING OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 50W AND THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY AN 
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRES RIDGE...SUPPLYING THE AREA WITH 
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. E OF THE RIDGE A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS 
MOVING SWD INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N37W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS ON 
THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW FROM 34N33W THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT TO 
30N32W TO 25N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E 
OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW 
AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE 
WINDS TO THE W OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC CONTINUES 
TO LIE IN A WEAK PRES PATTERN ALLOWING WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT 
SIDE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 5N16W 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN IN THE ITCZ.

$$
DGS