000
AXNT20 KNHC 051707
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 36W TO 3S42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 8W-20W...AND FROM 4S-EQ BETWEEN 40W-45W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 20W-32W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA 
NEAR 29N90W.  10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF 
OF MEXICO.  FURTHER S ...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 
N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 26N80W 23N87W.  A WARM FRONT 
CONTINUES SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N89W 18N89W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONTS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILT 
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL FROM 22N-28N.  SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  A 110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE 
NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  EXPECT 
THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH E OVER S FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
THEN GO STATIONARY.  EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT 
N TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE FRESH TRADES.  PATCHES OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 72W.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS 
ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NRN 
SOUTH AMERICA.  EXPECT...CONTINUED BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS OVER INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO S 
FLORIDA ALONG 32N75W 26N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A 
1007 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
35N36W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N32W TO 
26N36W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  A 
BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 35W-65W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT FRONT OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLANTIC FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
THEN BECOME STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE LOW 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N37W IN 24 HOURS 
AND HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE CENTER.

$$
FORMOSA