000 AXNT20 KNHC 051120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 6W-18W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN U.SS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEATHER RADAR INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SW GULF. OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE FRONT. W OF THE FRONT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE AS WEAK HIGH PRES 1018 MB IS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N93W RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENT. A 90-100 KT JET EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF...NEAR 29N90W TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE JET AXIS W OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE PATTERN ALOFT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 16N81W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE TYPICAL SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE THICKEST CLOUD PATCHES ARE NEAR THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-78W. AS USUAL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN THESE PATCHES. TRADE WINDS REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE TO 30 KT. ATLANTIC OCEAN.... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 32N69W. LARGE SFC RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC W OF AROUND 40W. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE BENEATH THIS RIDGE EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF WEAKENING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 60W-66W....LIKELY DUE TO A SMALL WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N32W TO 25N40W CONTINUING SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CLIPS THE N PORTION OF THE REGION EXTENDING FROM 32N33W TO 26N40W. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS NW OF THE FRONT TO 60W. IN THE TROPICS...AN E-W STRETCHED RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 5N17W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS AIDING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. $$ DGS