000 AXNT20 KNHC 041128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 12W-22W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 24W-28W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NW GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. RADAR SHOWS A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND. W OF THE FRONT N TO NW WINDS ARE INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE W GULF. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WITH CLEARING SKIES NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PANAMA WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BOTH E AND W OF THE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MID-UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW CLOUD FIELD SHALLOW. AS ALWAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE PATCHY AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND S OF HISPANIOLA. TRADE WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG...TO 30 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN.... BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG 45 WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM 32N43W TO 26N58W. N SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N30W TO 25N33W... DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 32N29W TO 25N19W...WITH ZONAL FLOW S OF 25N. A 70-85 KT JETSTREAM FROM 20N60W TO 20N35W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE S OF THE JETSTREAM IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N30W TO 18N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. $$ DGS