000
AXNT20 KNHC 032332
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N23W 2N35W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-47W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-27W 
AND FROM 2N-5N E OF 14W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER S ARKANSAS TRAILS A STRONG COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS ANALYZED FROM THE TEXAS/ 
LOUISIANA BORDER TO CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 30N94W 24N98W AT 21Z.  
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS NARROW LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED 
ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS AND 
MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE MOST PRONOUNCED AIRMASS CHANGE AND 
STRONGEST UPPER WINDS EXIST. W OF THE FRONT...N TO NW WINDS ARE 
INCREASING... ALREADY TO 30 KT AT BUOY 42020...AND WILL INCREASE 
TO GALE FORCE SHORTLY ACROSS THE W GULF. E OF THE FRONT...STIFF 
SE TO S WINDS ARE CREATING A RATHER WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH 
PATCHY CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POPPING UP 
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FLA PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 
FRONT CONTINUING SE EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE ENTIRE REGION BY 
EARLY WED. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY 
WEAKER BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE SE GULF AS THE UPPER SUPPORT 
WILL BE WELL N OF THE REGION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WV IMAGES FROM THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO PANAMA WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BOTH E 
AND W OF THE TROUGH LINE. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THESE MID-UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW 
CLOUD FIELD SHALLOW. AS ALWAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
IN THESE PATCHY AREAS OF CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST 
OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND FROM 14N-17N E OF 67W. TRADE WINDS 
ARE FAIRLY STRONG...TO 30 KT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS THE 
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT S OF A 1030 MB HIGH OFF THE CAROLINA 
COASTLINE. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE HIGH 
WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 50W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS TO 25N66W. A TROUGH HAS 
BROKE OFF THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IS NOW PUSHING W 
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS FROM 27N69W TO 21N74W. A WLY JET EXISTS 
ALONG 29N BETWEEN 48W AND 70W THEN EXTENDS NE INTO THE N ATLC. 
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
THE JET...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT AND 240 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS WELL IN CONTROL BEHIND THE 
FRONT CENTERED NEAR 35N70W. FARTHER E...STRONG HIGH PRES 
SITUATED N OF THE AZORES IS INTERRUPTED IN THE SUBTROPICS DUE TO 
A 1018 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N25W...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT REVEALED 
BY A 2022Z QSCAT PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NE OF 
THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LIES IN A WEAK SFC PRES 
PATTERN REGIME AND FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT CREATING A 
TRANQUIL ENVIRONMENT.  

$$
CANGIALOSI