000 AXNT20 KNHC 030540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 2N30W CROSSES THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 2N25W 2N33W LINE AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 75W... WESTERLIES ALOFT DOMINATE THE FLOW WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING WIND SPEEDS IN THE 70 TO 80 KNOT RANGE. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS SE FLORIDA TO THE CUBA COAST AT 82W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED 5 TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE E TO SE WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MONDAY NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST W OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERLIES ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...TO 60 KNOTS...LOCATED OVER THE NW PART. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER S AND ARE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA TO NEAR 20N82W. EASTERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A JET STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N70W TO 30N60W THROUGH 32N67W. WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PART AND STEADILY INCREASE FURTHER E AND ARE NEAR 100 KNOTS AT 32N67W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDES IS LOCATED N OF ABOUT 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W WITH THE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 60W. BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N28W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 24N31W. AT THE SURFACE A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N27W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE S 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A JET IS LOCATED FROM 17N42W TO 24N25W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 27N. MODERATE WESTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF ABOUT 17N. $$ CAB