000
AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W ...ALONG THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 30W-40W TO 3S50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2S-3N BETWEEN 28W-38W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 41W-51W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N76W.  A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 
CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  10-15 KT SELY FLOW IS OVER 
THE E GULF E OF 90W.  20-25 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF.  
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.   
SIMILAR CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 90W... AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO 
REMAIN ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT 
TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING 
BEHIND THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 
22N77W 19N82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH.  20-25 KT NELY SURFACE WINDS AND BROKEN MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE TROUGH.  MOST OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE FRESH 
TRADES.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 
20N.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA 
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL 
CUBA ALONG 32N59W 25N70W 22N77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N43W 25N55W.  A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N28W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 18W-40W.  AN 
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N25W. 
MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N FROM 
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 
N OF 25N TO MOVE E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE 
REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

$$
FORMOSA