000 AXNT20 KNHC 021743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W...ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W TO 2S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N E OF 15W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-31W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-5N BETWEEN 43W-53W AFFECTING THE N COAST OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE TAIL END OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE SW CONUS AND NW MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A BELT OF WSW WINDS OF 75-90 KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS ARE DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF...MAINLY SOUTH OF 25N. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE ACROSS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TENNESSEE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE N GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S RETURN FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS UP TO 50-60 KNOTS. THE FLOW WEAKENS TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER N BELIZE. AS USUAL...THE TRADE WINDS ARE CARRYING ON PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME OF THEM ARE JUST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS...NEAR GALE FORCE...ARE FORECAST TO BLOW JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS ALL THE WAY NE BEYOND 32N65W. THIS JET IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC/NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS CLIPPING THE FORECAST AREA W OF 70W. A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA THEN CONTINUES SWWD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH...BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE CONCENTRATED N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH MOVING N TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WEER TO THE SE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W AT MIDDLE LEVELS. THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE. A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM AND IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N28W ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE LOW ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE NE. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. $$ GR